GOLDFXCC™ – Live Market Outlook

Breaking: Here we go again “Iran says it has closed Hormuz again over US blockade” Source: The The Independent

Case Study GOLD> OIL>INFLATION - The Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role in global oil supply, so any tension there typically pushes oil prices higher and raises inflation concerns. - When news signals stability especially that the route won’t be used as geopolitical leverage oil prices often fall quickly. How we connect the dots on this headline? - Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure. As inflation expectations fall, traders start to anticipate that the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates sooner rather than keep them elevated. Gold doesn’t pay interest, so when rates are expected to fall, it becomes more attractive relative to yield bearing assets, and that alone can trigger strong buying. - At the same time, rate cut expectations tend to weaken the US dollar. Because gold is priced in dollars, a softer dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, adding further upward pressure. - So while it might seem intuitive that reduced geopolitical risk should push gold lower, the current market is more focused on macroeconomic forces particularly real yields and currency strength. The chain reaction looks like this: - Stability in oil supply → lower oil prices → reduced inflation expectations → increased likelihood of rate cuts → weaker dollar and lower real yields → stronger gold prices

XAUUSD this setup has failed. Initially dropped and then reversed. We consider it as failed setup

XAUUSD Moving well +200pips

XAUUSD M3 Scalping https://www.tradingview.com/x/TFPr36uZ/

XAUUSD +100pips drop

NASDAQ 2D Swing https://www.tradingview.com/x/j448oCuA/

XAUUSD H2 scalping https://www.tradingview.com/x/vf9xNxMZ/

We have decided to close the XAU trade or [this chart] due to unfavourable conditions indicated by the closing candlestick.